I was recently watching ESPN coverage of a 9-Ball tournament and I noticed an interesting play and some very insightful commentary. Earl Strickland was up to bat for team USA and he was presented with a very difficult look at the 2-Ball which was almost frozen on the end rail opposite the cue ball. The only possiblity of pocketing the ball would be to attempt a treacherous cross-corner bank shot, otherwise Strickland would have to play a "safety" and give his opponent a chance to run the rack and potentially the set. He ended up taking the shot and making it, going on to win the match. The commentators observed how this one shot was clearly the deciding moment of the tournament and offered some keen insight into Strickland's decision to attempt the shot. "While in the short run it may have been a statistically flawed play to go for the pocket rather than hit a safety," the commentator said, "Stickland took a risk and positioned himself to win the entire tournament if he hit the shot." This was dead-on, and it rings true for a lot of situations in poker tournaments as well. Frequently it is right to take a big risk in order to give yourself a shot at winning the entire thing. These "go big or go home" situations will make or break you in a tournament, but often it the best move to just go for it. Obviously you'd rather just cruise to the final table on the nuts, breaking everyone in your path, but that just doesn't happen too regularly.
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A note on 9-Ball: 9-Ball is a great representation of a lot of the same ideas that make poker so great. There is a decent potential for luck to play a part in the outcome of any given game of 9-Ball, especially when non-professionals are doing the competing. However, it is a numbers game as well. Each shot has percentages associated with it (% I will make the shot, % the cue ball will stop in a favorable position, etc.), and when the top players compete they are also calculating these percentages on every stroke. Like poker there are tight and aggressive pro-players, and it is hard to say if one style has a particular edge. Like Tom Cruise says in the intro to
Color of Money, "Luck plays a part in 9-Ball, but for some players, luck itself is an art."
